Two recent pieces of economic analysis are putting the lie to some of the dire claims(opens in new tab) made by opponents of Initiative 1098.
First, Mike Kimmel at Presimetrics(opens in new tab) runs the numbers and determines there is “a clear positive correlation between the top marginal tax rate and the growth in real GDP per capita over the next four years.”
In other words, higher taxes on wealthy people correlate with higher rates of economic growth. Here’s the chart from Mike’s blog:
And yes, Mike went out as far as six years, and as few as one, and the result is the same. Read it for yourself(opens in new tab).
Second, Steve Roth at Asymptosis(opens in new tab) uses data compiled by Eric de Place of Sightline about where millionaires live, and it turns out they apparently don’t care much about income taxes. Steve writes, “you’d expect to find a much smaller percentage of millionaires in places that have (high) income taxes. But you don’t.”
In other words, there is essentially zero correlation between a state’s effective tax rate and where millionaires live:
Again, there’s more in the original post, so have a look for yourself(opens in new tab).